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How do you add two 25% chances of winning?
Lets say we play poker (Texas Hold'em). We have a spade card on the hand and the flop shows three spade cards. Neglect all other cards on the table for simplicity. We have a 25% chance of a flush on the turn and another 25% chance of a flush on the River. My question is: What is the total quota for a flush right after the flop. Do we have an increase of 25% +25% = 50% chance of winning. ?????
No, because the two events are not independent (could appear two more spades). So in terms of the two "events" 1 and 2, where 1 = "flush on the turn" and 2 = flush on the river ", the probability P = (1) + P (2) – P (1 and 2), P (1 and 2) the probability both events. ideas in regard to the so-called Venn diagrams (often shown as circles), the set of events occurs in which 1 and the set of all events where 2 appears to be drawn as circles on the paper. If these are two circles overlap as events in which there are both (overlapping area of the circles) and if you ask what would be the area that these groups would meet together to th parties minus the sum of areas of overlap say (to avoid double counting). Hope this makes things …
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